Daily Fantasy Baseball 2015: MLB DraftKings Studs and Duds for June 15 – Bleacher Report

The MLB offers an unusually full schedule this week, with all 30 teams playing all seven days. That crowds an often thin Monday slate for daily fantasy participants.

After a fun weekend for aces not named Felix Hernandez, many low-level starters and former aces well past their primes take the rubber on Monday. Still, a few quality names are on the menu, and DraftKings gamers should seriously consider pairing two of the top choices.

On the offensive end, enough bargains exist to assemble around a star or two. Here’s a rundown of the evening’s top options.

Pitching Studs

Francisco Liriano, Pittsburgh Pirates ($10,000) vs. CHW

Francisco Liriano’s matchup is far too good to pass up. The Chicago White Sox are helpless against left-handed pitching, ranking a distant last in slugging percentage and weighted runs created plus (wRC+). 

One of baseball’s toughest lefties to hit, Liriano sports a pretty 10.49 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9), a savory 53.6 ground-ball percentage and a sturdy 3.12 fielding independent pitching (FIP). Bank on a dominant display decorated by a double-digit strikeout tally. 

Despite his poor chances of winning, don’t count out his opponent, Carlos Rodon, as a cheap ($6,500) flier.

Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros ($9,600) vs. COL

Rather than worrying about regression, let’s take a moment to appreciate Dallas Keuchel. Sure, his 1.90 ERA won’t last, but it won’t torpedo too high given his 64.2 ground-ball percentage, MLB’s second-highest mark behind Brett Anderson.

As for his lacking 6.85 K/9 rate, Keuchel has collected 23 strikeouts over his last 22 innings. Most importantly, his price hasn’t skyrocketed out of hand, and he’s not facing the Colorado Rockies in Coors Field.

Away from Coors, the Rockies strike out more and walk less than anyone in baseball. Such poor discipline will help Keuchel continue his streak of logging at least six innings in every start this season. The punchouts are gravy for someone who regularly induces weak contact heading into a favorable matchup.

Jesse Hahn, Oakland Athletics ($6,400) at SD

Jesse Hahn lost his following by allowing nine baserunners and four runs before escaping the fourth inning on Wednesday. Even so, he maintains a 3.36 FIP this season fueled by a 52.0 ground-ball percentage. 

Hahn sure enjoyed Petco Park last year, generating a 2.95 ERA and 37 strikeouts through 36.2 innings for the San Diego Padres. Now he returns as the enemy, which allows him to feast upon San Diego’s weak lineup.

Returning to National League rules will also help Hahn in the strikeout department, making him a smart, cheap play for someone unwilling to purchase two aces.

Pitching Dud

Yovani Gallardo, Texas Rangers ($7,400) vs. LAD

Yovani Gallardo has issued a 1.80 ERA during his past four outings, submitting a season-high 10 strikeouts during his last start against the Oakland Athletics. Combining the hot hand with nostalgia for his four straight 200-strikeout seasons from 2009-12, a careless player could get caught in Gallardo’s trap.

The Los Angeles Dodgers, however, spit out righties. They lead MLB in on-base percentage, slugging percentage and wRC+ against them, and getting Yasiel Puig back doesn’t hurt. Recent rebound aside, Gallardo has registered a 7.0 K/9 since 2012, so don’t expect a return to his glory days.

Hitting Studs 

Miguel Cabrera, 1B/3B, Detroit Tigers ($5,600) vs. CIN 

Woah, bold prediction alert! This one needs little explanation. Miguel Cabrera destroys baseballs. Poor Jon Moscot enters his third career start with a 5.92 FIP. DraftKings gifting Cabrera third-base eligibility makes his sky-high $5,600 cost easier to swallow in cash contests.

Cheap Stack: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Washington (LHP Gio Gonzalez)

Gio Gonzalez seems like a weird stacking target. Despite his 4.42 ERA, the lefty wields a 3.07 FIP and has allowed two runs in each of his past two starts. Yet the struggling Tampa Bay Rays are dirt cheap despite some of them exploiting lefties this season.

Never given his proper due all season, Logan Forsythe is now treated as a complete afterthought due to a slow June. Also laboring this month, Steven Souza has gone from top play to $3,900 discount despite authoring a .400 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against lefties prior to facing Chris Sale on Sunday.

Some see cold spells as a reason to run, but an opportunistic DFS player must learn to sniff out opportunities against the grain. With everyone off Tampa Bay’s trail, the payoff expands if these guys wake up.

David Ortiz, 1B, Boston Red Sox ($4,600) vs. ATL (RHP Williams Perez)

David Ortiz is making up for lost time, going deep in three of his last four games. While it’s usually not advisable to pay a premium for a fleeting hot streak, Big Papi is a proven slugger whose troubles have come against lefties all year. 

Sweetening the pot, Williams Perez won’t continue to juggle a 2.70 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP and 3.85 FIP. Even during his successful start, lefties have mustered a .752 OPS against the rookie. Give the red-hot Ortiz one more spin. 

David Peralta, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks ($2,900) at LAA (RHP Jered Weaver)

A recommended play for Saturday, David Peralta went 2-for-4 with a run, RBI and stolen base. His price has since sunk further from $3,500 to $2,800 despite his .835 OPS against right-handed pitchers. What’s up with that?

It’s not on account of his opponent, as Jered Weaver has allowed a .506 slugging percentage and nine homers against lefties. Take DraftKings’ gracious gift and keep plugging Peralta into the lineup.

OFs Michael Cuddyer ($3,700) and John Mayberry ($2,500), New York Mets vs. TOR (LHP Mark Buehrle)

Although neither have performed well against lefties this season, Michael Cuddyer and John Mayberry both boast strong career track records against them:

In his extensive past with Mark Buehrle, Michael Cuddyer has hit .318/.350/.500 in 114 plate appearances, a large enough sample size to take notice. Mayberry, who regularly gets the nod and prominent placement in the New York Mets’ batting order against southpaws, has homered in each of his last two starts. 

Hitting Dud

Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels ($4,900) vs. ARI (LHP Robbie Ray)

Albert Pujols has already belted seven long balls in June, but he has a .632 OPS against lefties this season. While Robbie Ray’s 1.53 ERA is the fluky product of a small sample size, the scorching first baseman isn’t worth the full price against any southpaw.

Note: Advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs.

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