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Driver rankings for Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each driver.
(FPPK = average fantasy points per $1,000 of salary.)
1. Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,800) — Nothing has changed: He’s still the NASCAR daily fantasy darling. Truex’s high level of consistency might be the best season by an athlete in any daily fantasy sport ever, as he has sat atop the leaderboard since March. (6.4 FPPK)
2. Kyle Busch ($10,300) — He needs to win, or if he runs up front in Stage 1 and 2, he possibly could advance with a top-five finish. It’s complicated, and it will change throughout the race, but winning would make the math a lot easier for Busch, who has five consecutive top-five finishes at Kansas. (5.4 FPPK)
3. Kyle Larson ($9,800) — He was conspicuously slow last month at Chicago to start the playoffs. The No. 42 was a top-five car, but it could not challenge the leader. It’s hard to pass the leader. It’s called aerodynamics. Two weeks ago at Charlotte, Larson never led, but he earned the second-most fast-lap points. (5.6 FPPK)
4. Kevin Harvick ($9,600) — As the season progresses, the Stewart-Haas Racing team learns more and more about its new Ford. In the last two intermediate track races, Harvick’s car has come alive. At Chicago, he ran 26 fast laps. He followed that with 86 fast laps at Charlotte. (4.3 FPPK)
5. Chase Elliott ($9,100) — Charlotte and Chicago are both intermediate tracks, and Dover is not that much different. Most teams run a similar setup at Dover and Charlotte. Elliott’s average running position at Chicago was second. It was fourth at Dover and third at Charlotte. (4.1 FPPK)
6. Jimmie Johnson ($9,900) — As long as Kyle Busch doesn’t win, a top-10 finish will advance Johnson to Round 3. A top-five likely will lock him into the next round. In the last four Kansas races, Johnson has three top-five finishes. (3.8 FPPK)
7. Ryan Blaney ($8,500) — He started on pole in the first Kansas race and went on to score 19 fast-lap points and 21 laps-led points. Those points did not come at the very beginning, when he had the ideal track position. He battled the entire race, leading laps eight separate times. (2.8 FPPK)
8. Denny Hamlin ($8,5800) — In the last eight intermediate track races, Hamlin’s average running position was seventh or better in each race. He’s fast but not the fastest. Only once has Hamlin earned significant fast-lap points, and that was in his encumbered win at Darlington. (4.1 FPPK)
9. Erik Jones ($8,000) — He had one of the best cars at the intermediate tracks in the summer, and his car still is the same. The difference has been starting position. The Charlotte and Chicago races were not that racey. Even a Toyota will struggle to pass 20 cars. (4.1 FPPK)
10. Brad Keselowski ($10,100) — Just like the final race of Round 1, this race is meaningless. Keselowski can earn playoff points by winning a stage. That’s one point. It would be a near miracle for BK to find the speed to outrace the Toyotas. If he does, it’s one point. He’s just out there this week. (4.2 FPPK)
11. Joey Logano ($9,300) — The No. 22 team is experimenting. Practice times will be hard to trust. When it comes to an actual race, it might go back to its original setups, or maybe it will find something and compete with the Toyotas. (3.3 FPPK)
12. Kurt Busch ($8,100) — Too many drivers qualify for the playoffs but only the best advance. Busch has finished worse than 19th in all five playoff races. He didn’t make it to Round 2 of the playoffs. (2.9 FPPK)
13. Jamie McMurray ($8,400) — It has been a season full of top-10s for McMurray (16). His strategy was to earn those top-10s and race up front this season, and he has accomplished that. The only thing he lacks is a win. This week, he must win to advance in the playoffs. (3.4 FPPK)
14. Matt Kenseth ($9,000) — Ryan Blaney, Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch all are ahead of Kenseth in the playoff standings. A win would be nice, but Kenseth has yet to do that this season. A good finish and bad luck for the other playoff drivers is more likely. (3.7 FPPK)
15. Clint Bowyer ($8,700) — This has been a disappointing season, as the expectations were too high for Bowyer’s first season with SHR. No one jumps into an untested Ford and beats the Toyotas. Kansas is a home race for Bowyer, but he has just two top-five finishes in 18 races at his home track. (3.3 FPPK)
16. Ryan Newman ($7,600) — He has finished 12th or better in six of the last seven races at Kansas. His six-race, top-12 streak was snapped in May when he suffered an oil pump failure and finished 40th. (4.3 FPPK)
17. Daniel Suarez ($7,400) — The best way to decide whether or not to roster Suarez is to scratch off his name. This is the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing car. There is a real stigma surrounding Suarez, who’s consistently underpriced, but he has the 10th-best average finish this season. (4.1 FPPK)
18. Kasey Kahne ($8,300) — To say Kahne has struggled at intermediate tracks is an understatement. Two weeks ago, Kahne finished ninth at Charlotte. A top-10 at Kansas is not a stretch, as Kahne’s worst average running position in the last six races there is 16th. (3.1 FPPK)
19. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($7,800) — This is not a great situation for Stenhouse. He needs to win to advance in the playoffs, but he has led just two laps at an intermediate track this year (Charlotte in May). (3.8 FPPK)
20. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. ($8,300) — The father-to-be is on his hottest streak of the season. He finished seventh at Dover, 12th at Charlotte and seventh at Talladega. It would be really easy to mock those numbers, but let’s be positive. Junior is in contention for a top-10 finish this weekend. (2.8 FPPK)
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.