Fantasy Daily notes for Aug. 31 – ESPN

Starting pitcher projected Game Scores for August 31
					2015 Statistics			Past 21 Days
GS	Team	Name	T	Opp	W-L	ERA	WHIP	W-L	ERA	WHIP
70		David Price	L	Cle	13-4	2.42	1.08	3-0	2.22	1.06
66		Chris Archer	R	@Bal	11-10	2.88	1.03	1-2	4.78	1.29
62		Danny Salazar	R	@Tor	11-7	3.30	1.08	2-1	2.84	1.16
62		Dallas Keuchel	L	Sea	15-6	2.28	1.00	2-1	1.88	1.05
61		Tyson Ross	R	Tex	9-9	3.42	1.38	1-1	3.70	1.32
54		Gio Gonzalez	L	@StL	9-7	4.11	1.48	1-3	6.20	1.67
53		John Lackey	R	Wsh	11-8	2.92	1.20	2-1	3.29	1.24
51		Bartolo Colon	R	Phi	11-11	4.68	1.29	1-1	4.44	1.40
51		Wei-Yin Chen	L	TB	8-6	3.17	1.21	3-0	2.42	1.27
50		Kyle Hendricks	R	Cin	6-6	4.11	1.23	1-1	6.86	1.73
48		Brett Anderson	L	SF	8-8	3.36	1.30	2-2	4.94	1.44
48		Vidal Nuno	L	@Hou	0-2	2.88	1.19	0-1	3.71	1.35
48		Jerad Eickhoff	R	@NYM	1-1	2.25	1.08	1-1	2.25	1.08
47		Hector Santiago	L	@Oak	7-8	3.13	1.20	0-3	5.31	1.38
47		Jake Peavy	R	@LAD	4-6	4.21	1.29	2-2	5.09	1.48
46		Eduardo Rodriguez	L	NYY	7-5	4.39	1.23	1-2	4.50	1.19
45		Chris Narveson	L	@Atl	1-1	7.04	1.43	1-1	9.26	1.71
45		Colby Lewis	R	@SD	14-6	4.38	1.20	2-2	2.77	1.15
42		Chad Bettis	R	Ari	6-4	4.69	1.40	1-0	1.80	1.40
42		Mike Foltynewicz	R	Mia	4-6	5.71	1.63	1-3	6.75	1.75
41		Felix Doubront	L	LAA	1-1	3.70	1.43	0-0	1.26	1.19
41		Ivan Nova	R	@Bos	5-6	4.50	1.34	1-3	7.17	1.45
40		Robbie Ray	L	@Col	3-10	3.86	1.32	0-4	6.98	1.81
37		Michael Lorenzen	R	@ChC	3-8	5.46	1.65	0-2	14.21	2.68
GS: The pitcher’s projected “Game Score,” from Bill James’ original formula, which accounts for past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days), opponent and ballpark. A Game Score of 50 typically is typically regarded a quality start; anything over 70 is exceptional, anything under 30 poor. A “*” means that the pitcher lacks requisite career major league data to produce an accurate projected Game Score; these are the author’s projections. T: Pitcher throws left-handed or right-handed. Opp: The pitcher’s opponent for the day. W-L: Pitcher’s win-loss record. ERA: Pitcher’s earned run average. WHIP: Pitcher’s average number of walks plus hits surrendered per inning.

It’s a fairly full slate for a Monday with only six teams taking the day off. Before digging in, rosters expand on Tuesday so there will be even more rotation shuffling than normal. As we’ve done all season, a morning update will be filed, reflecting all announced pitching changes with most of the impending changes noted in the comments as they’re confirmed.

Elite

The top of the class features four aces, two squaring off — one, the best cash game option and the last, a risky tournament play. Let’s start with the latter, as Chris Archer will be tasked with keeping the Baltimore Orioles in check as the American East rivals open a series in Camden Yards. Archer’s 11.2 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 rank him among the most highly skilled arms in the game. At home, the Orioles sport an impressive .351 weighted on-base average (wOBA) versus right-handers, so Archer will have his work cut out for him. The risk takes Archer out of cash game consideration, but he’s viable for a tournament if you like paying top dollar on pitching.

The Seattle Mariners are skipping Felix Hernandez this time through, depriving fans of a Dallas Keuchel -versus-Hernandez matchup. However, the silver lining for the DFS player is that with Vidal Nuno taking the turn instead, Keuchel’s cash game prospects are even more favorable with a clearer path to the win. For the past two months the southpaw has averaged a tick over seven innings a start with a strikeout per inning; exactly what you want from a cash game anchor. On the road against lefties, the Mariners offense is league average so there’s no reason to believe Keuchel won’t turn in a seven-inning performance with seven whiffs.

The marquee matchup of the evening features David Price and the Toronto Blue Jays slugging show hosting Danny Salazar and the Cleveland Indians. Salazar’s 10.1 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 are quietly just a tick below Archer’s. The Blue Jays smacked around the Detroit Tigers over the weekend, but they didn’t have to face the likes of Salazar. Obviously there’s some risk, but Salazar does have the platoon edge on the Jays big-four, so if you’re looking for the contrarian play, the Indians’ talented righty is the guy. Adding to the contrarian aspect is that Price will be facing the Tribe’s lineup, which is not nearly as daunting as his teammates’. With respect to DFS, Price is the odd man out of the elite. If you’re willing to pay, Keuchel is the man, while Archer and Salazar have higher ceilings.

Solid

This could be the smallest solid tier of the entire season (which means a ton of streaming options). Tyson Ross is the best of the limited sampling, as he and the San Diego Padres welcome the Texas Rangers into Petco Park for an interleague tilt. Ross has historically been better at home, though this season, his skills are similar at home and away. Most notably, he’s become an extreme ground-ball pitcher, which has resulted in a tiny 0.28 HR/9, though some of that is a result of a fortuitous seven percent home-run-per fly-ball mark. The Rangers are average on the road offensively, setting Ross up as a candidate for cash or GPP action.

John Lackey is an intriguing tournament play, as the St. Louis Cardinals entertain the Washington Nationals. Lackey’s strikeout rate has dropped, but he’s maintained excellent control. This combination has allowed the veteran righty to toss at least seven frames in ten of his past 14 outings. On the road, the Nationals fan at an above-average clip, so Lackey is set up for his usual seven-inning stint with almost as many whiffs. At his cost, you don’t need double-digit punchouts to be worth the cost.

Streamers

As alluded to, well over half of the scheduled starters check in with a Game Score in the streaming range. It’s the first day of the week, so the trick is to balance playing it safely with putting some pressure on your head-to-head opponent. The other consideration is there will likely be changes to the schedule as the week progresses and thus the message from the proverb “bird in hand” could be a guide. That is, you really don’t know what the weekend schedule will be, so being aggressive early, dancing with the devil you know, could pay off.

Hot Spots

Hector Santiago has hit a rough patch but by and large has kept the Angels in almost every game he’s started this season. The opposition Oakland Athletics aren’t the most imposing offense and will be sending Felix Doubront to the hill to face Santiago. Don’t expect more than a handful of strikeouts but at minimum. Santiago is a good candidate to pick up an early win without sacrificing ratios.

If you anticipate being in a tight ratio race this week, then this isn’t for you as the New York Yankees have handled southpaws very well since the All-Star break, especially on the road. However, the Boston Red Sox have been playing better as of late and should be able to provide some run support for Eduardo Rodriguez facing Ivan Nova in Fenway.

Sneaking in a DFS blurb, a low-end tournament candidate is Wei-Yin Chen who opposed Chris Archer in Tropicana Field. When discussing Archer earlier, it was noted that there’s some risk. If the Orioles do get to the Ray’s ace, Chen could be in line for a win, as he’s likely to do his part, keeping the contest a low-scoring affair.

Colby Lewis is another dual streaming option and DFS play as he leads the Texas Rangers into Petco Park. There’s even a bit of strikeout upside, as the San Diego Padres whiff at a 22 percent clip at home versus right-handers.

Cold Streams

With the standard offer to elaborate on any non-featured starter in the comments, the only three pitchers on the slate with no discernible upside are predictably the two mound foes in Coors Field — Chad Bettis and Robbie Ray facing the free-swinging Cubs in Wrigley Field.

With the standard offer to elaborate on any non-featured starter in the comments, the only three pitchers on the slate with no discernible upside are predictably the two mound foes in Coors Field, Chad Bettis and Robbie Ray, along with the Cincinnati Reds’ Michael Lorenzen facing the free-swinging Cubs in Wrigley Field.