Fantasy daily notes for September 6 – ESPN

Starting pitcher projected Game Scores for September 6
					2014 Statistics			Past 21 Days
GS	Team	Name	T	Opp	W-L	ERA	WHIP	W-L	ERA	WHIP
72		David Price	L	SF	13-10	3.25	1.07	2-2	3.60	1.20
68		Madison Bumgarner	L	@Det	16-9	2.97	1.08	3-0	1.55	0.66
65		Johnny Cueto	R	NYM	16-8	2.26	0.97	2-2	3.62	1.39
63		Zack Greinke	R	Ari	13-8	2.72	1.16	1-0	1.80	1.15
63		Drew Smyly	L	Bal	9-10	3.31	1.17	2-0	1.57	0.52
63		Tyson Ross	R	@Col	13-12	2.60	1.17	2-2	2.39	1.10
61		Corey Kluber	R	CWS	13-9	2.72	1.13	0-3	4.56	1.56
60		Alex Wood	L	@Mia	10-10	2.92	1.15	2-1	2.25	0.82
59		A.J. Burnett	R	@Wsh	7-15	4.40	1.39	1-2	4.79	1.16
58		Tanner Roark	R	Phi	12-9	2.91	1.11	1-2	3.24	1.20
55		Francisco Liriano	L	@ChC	3-10	3.91	1.33	0-2	4.30	1.52
54		Lance Lynn	R	@Mil	14-8	2.85	1.30	2-0	2.16	1.32
52*		Cory Rasmus	R	@Min	3-1	2.48	1.10	1-0	2.00	0.78
51		Scott Kazmir	L	Hou	14-7	3.39	1.14	1-2	12.19	2.42
51		Kyle Lohse	R	StL	12-8	3.68	1.21	1-1	6.17	1.63
51		Phil Hughes	R	LAA	15-9	3.54	1.15	3-1	1.80	0.80
50		Danny Duffy	L	@NYY	8-11	2.42	1.08	1-1	1.75	1.01
50		Jose Quintana	L	@Cle	7-10	3.44	1.25	1-1	6.00	1.44
49		Brandon McCarthy	R	KC	8-14	4.19	1.31	1-3	3.58	1.08
48		Felix Doubront	L	Pit	3-4	5.56	1.55	1-0	1.29	1.14
48		Nathan Eovaldi	R	Atl	6-10	4.19	1.29	0-3	6.60	2.07
48		Kevin Gausman	R	@TB	7-7	3.93	1.34	1-3	4.03	1.12
47		Dillon Gee	R	@Cin	6-6	3.81	1.18	2-2	4.81	1.48
45		Scott Feldman	R	@Oak	8-10	4.09	1.36	2-2	3.86	1.18
44		Chase Anderson	R	@LAD	8-6	3.75	1.37	1-2	6.63	1.84
44		Rubby De La Rosa	R	Tor	4-5	3.89	1.43	0-1	6.10	1.89
44		J.A. Happ	L	@Bos	9-8	4.37	1.40	1-1	5.51	1.47
43		Jorge De La Rosa	L	SD	13-10	4.26	1.24	2-2	3.81	1.15
40		Chris Young	R	@Tex	12-7	3.46	1.20	1-1	6.97	2.23
38		Nick Martinez	R	Sea	3-10	5.14	1.61	1-2	4.84	1.52
GS: The pitcher’s projected “Game Score,” from Bill James’ original formula, which accounts for past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days), opponent and ballpark. A Game Score of 50 typically is typically regarded a quality start; anything over 70 is exceptional, anything under 30 poor. A “*” means that the pitcher lacks requisite career major league data to produce an accurate projected Game Score; these are the author’s projections. T: Pitcher throws left-handed or right-handed. Opp: The pitcher’s opponent for the day. W-L: Pitcher’s win-loss record. ERA: Pitcher’s earned run average. WHIP: Pitcher’s average number of walks plus hits surrendered per inning.

The elite (ranked for use in daily cash games such as 50/50s and double ups)

It just so happens that two of the top options of the day — David Price and Madison Bumgarner — are squaring off against each other on Saturday. This means that each hurler’s chances for a win are diminished, and that’s something to consider on sites where wins are highly rewarded. Even so, both lefties are high-end options here, especially Price, who gets a San Francisco Giants team that is solid offensively but not particularly imposing. Things actually line up quite nicely for the Tigers lefty, as he ranks sixth in the AL with an 11.7 swinging strike percentage, while the Giants own a 12.0 swinging strike percentage, the third-worst mark in the NL.

Bumgarner has a tougher matchup, as the Tigers sport a .336 wOBA versus left-handed pitchers this season, the best mark in baseball. Because you’ll be paying a premium to roster Bumgarner, that’s obviously not ideal. However, he put up a season-best 1.57 ERA in August and has whiffed nine or more hitters four times in his last six outings, so it’s not like this is a matchup he won’t be able to overcome. If anything, he might be an interesting contrarian play, as other daily leaguers may be scared off by his opponent.

The best matchup of the elite tier might just belong to Zack Greinke against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Over the last 30 days, the D-backs have been the worst team in baseball versus right-handed pitching, sporting a .272 wOBA. That puts Greinke, who ranks sixth in the NL with a 4.8 strikeout-to-walk ratio, in a great spot to succeed. He’s also a great bet to come away with a win, as he’s facing Chase Anderson, who owns a 6.63 ERA over the last three weeks. Greinke has whiffed double-digit hitters five times this season, just one fewer than Bumgarner.

While the Cincinnati Reds have not been playing very well lately, Johnny Cueto gives them a great chance to win on Saturday against Dillon Gee and the New York Mets. The Reds right-hander hasn’t registered double-digit K’s in a start since mid-June, but he’s also allowed more than three runs in a start just once in his last 16 outings, so he certainly offers the security you want from a cash-game option. When facing right-handed pitchers this year, the Mets rank just 25th in baseball with a .292 wOBA.

Solid (can be considered for both daily cash games and tournament play)

Alex Wood is coming off his best start of the season, an outing against the Miami Marlins that saw him twirl eight shutout innings while striking out 12. As luck would have it, he’s facing those same Marlins again on Saturday. A repeat performance is probably asking a bit much, but this is a Marlins team that strikes out 23.4 percent of the time (the second-highest percentage in baseball), so double-digit whiffs are in play once again. Wood is also coming off his best month of the season, as he posted a 1.96 ERA in August with nearly a strikeout per inning. Assuming a significant difference in cost, I have no issue rolling with Wood on Saturday over one of the elite options.

Corey Kluber stumbled a bit in his last start, as he lasted just 2.2 innings against the Tigers while allowing five runs (including three homers). But I wouldn’t look too much into that. The right-hander’s numbers this season are still superb, he’s whiffed eight or more in four of his last five starts, and, simply speaking, the Chicago White Sox are not the Detroit Tigers from an offensive standpoint. The Sox strike out more than any other AL team except for the Houston Astros, and the team’s .140 hard-hit average is bottom-five in baseball. Kluber is a strong bet to rebound in this one.

Facing the Baltimore Orioles is not a particularly favorable matchup, especially considering they sport an AL-best .338 wOBA over the last 30 days. However, there are still reasons to like Drew Smyly in this one. For one, he’s coming off his best month of the season in which he posted a 1.50 ERA, so he’s on top of his game right now. Secondly, Smyly has relied on his curveball 26.9 percent of the time this season, the third most in the AL, and the Orioles rank just 20th in baseball with a .244 wOBA versus curves. The strikeout upside isn’t high enough to make the southpaw a great tournament option, but he’s worth a look in cash games if you’re looking to save cap space.

Entering Friday, the Milwaukee Brewers have lost nine straight. The St. Louis Cardinals have won six straight. Based on that alone, Lance Lynn looks like a strong bet for a win on Saturday as he goes up against Kyle Lohse, the owner of a 7.30 August ERA. Also consider that the Cardinals right-hander has allowed three or fewer runs in 11 straight starts and that his lone double-digit strikeout performance this year came against Milwaukee.

Value plays (best used in tournaments or on multiple-pitcher sites)

Francisco Liriano can be inconsistent at times (see his start against the Atlanta Braves in mid-August when he allowed nine runs in four innings), and sometimes his control and get away from him (4.3 BB/9). Then again, he boasts a 9.6 K/9 this season, and he’s facing a Chicago Cubs team that strikes out more than any other team against left-handed pitching (25.4 percent). That’s a very nice combination and makes Liriano a high-upside option for tournament play.