Fantasy daily notes for September 14 – ESPN

Starting pitcher projected Game Scores for September 14
					2014 Statistics			Past 21 Days
GS	Team	Name	T	Opp	W-L	ERA	WHIP	W-L	ERA	WHIP
86		Clayton Kershaw	L	@SF	18-3	1.67	0.82	3-0	0.75	0.75
65*		Jon Lester	L	@Sea	14-10	2.52	1.10	1-2	2.17	1.00
60*		Yusmeiro Petit	R	LAD	5-3	3.62	0.99	2-0	3.09	0.69
57		Jordan Zimmermann	R	@NYM	11-5	2.93	1.13	3-0	2.73	1.03
56		Justin Verlander	R	Cle	13-12	4.82	1.43	3-1	5.13	1.48
54		Mike Minor	L	@Tex	6-10	4.58	1.41	1-2	2.66	1.08
54		Matt Garza	R	Cin	7-8	3.83	1.19	0-1	9.00	2.29
52		Chris Tillman	R	NYY	12-5	3.36	1.23	2-0	1.96	1.26
52		Dallas Keuchel	L	@LAA	10-9	3.06	1.21	0-0	2.61	1.21
51*		Edinson Volquez	R	ChC	11-7	3.36	1.26	1-0	2.10	1.25
51		Jason Vargas	L	Bos	11-8	3.25	1.25	1-3	3.75	1.67
50		Hector Noesi	R	Min	8-9	4.69	1.36	1-0	3.54	1.03
49		Hector Santiago	L	Hou	5-7	3.38	1.27	2-0	3.45	1.40
49		Hiroki Kuroda	R	@Bal	10-9	3.91	1.18	2-1	3.47	1.07
49		Jonathon Niese	L	Wsh	8-10	3.59	1.32	1-1	4.50	1.45
49		Odrisamer Despaigne	R	@Ari	3-6	3.55	1.26	0-1	3.93	1.20
49		Trevor Bauer	R	@Det	5-8	4.12	1.37	1-1	2.84	1.22
49		Chris Archer	R	@Tor	9-8	3.63	1.34	1-2	6.56	1.59
41		Jacob Turner	R	@Pit	5-9	5.84	1.58	1-2	6.19	1.50
47		Mike Leake	R	@Mil	11-11	3.62	1.24	2-0	3.80	1.14
47		Mark Buehrle	L	TB	12-9	3.31	1.38	1-1	2.96	1.21
46		Marco Gonzales	L	Col	2-2	5.01	1.76	2-0	1.93	0.96
46		Tom Koehler	R	@Phi	9-9	3.74	1.28	0-0	3.24	1.36
45		Trevor Cahill	R	SD	3-11	5.23	1.58	0-3	9.69	2.00
45		Joe Kelly	R	@KC	3-4	4.14	1.40	1-1	3.79	1.21
45		Colby Lewis	R	Atl	9-13	5.29	1.53	1-2	3.91	1.00
44		David Buchanan	R	Mia	6-7	3.90	1.30	0-0	2.57	1.38
43		Chris Young	R	Oak	12-7	3.35	1.21	0-1	7.71	2.68
40		Jordan Lyles	R	@StL	6-2	4.20	1.33	0-1	4.88	1.42
37		Trevor May	R	@CWS	2-4	8.38	2.07	2-2	8.10	1.70
GS: The pitcher’s projected “Game Score,” from Bill James’ original formula, which accounts for past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days), opponent and ballpark. A Game Score of 50 typically is typically regarded a quality start; anything over 70 is exceptional, anything under 30 poor. A “*” means that the pitcher lacks requisite career major league data to produce an accurate projected Game Score; these are the author’s projections. T: Pitcher throws left-handed or right-handed. Opp: The pitcher’s opponent for the day. W-L: Pitcher’s win-loss record. ERA: Pitcher’s earned run average. WHIP: Pitcher’s average number of walks plus hits surrendered per inning.

The elite (ranked for use in daily cash games such as 50/50s and double ups)

A record of 18-3, 1.67 ERA and 0.82 WHIP with 210 strikeouts speaks for itself. But daily fantasy players have an additional consideration and that’s innings pitched. Clayton Kershaw has hurled at least seven inning in 15 consecutive starts, only four of which he failed to toss eight frames. This is even more impressive when you consider the average start lasts six innings while only ten percent of starters average 6.5 frames. Sunday’s encounter with Los Angeles Dodgers wrapping up a series with the San Francisco Giants in AT&T Park is crucial as the rivals battle for the top spot in the NL West. So long as the game is close, Kershaw will be in the game and with Yusmeiro Petit throwing for the home team, runs will at a premium. For the season, at home, left-handers have given San Francisco a bit of trouble as evidenced by a good but not great .316 wOBA and rather healthy 22.3 strikeout rate. However, the past three weeks, the Giants are handling left-handers much better as shown by .351 wOBA and 18.4 percent strikeout rate. Kershaw is the best pitcher on the planet; just don’t be shocked if his strikeout total is a little short. Plus, his win potential isn’t as high as usual.

A month or two ago, who would have thought the finale of the series between the Oakland Athletics and Seattle Mariners would have wild-card implications? The A’s are a team in freefall, but since being acquired at the trade deadline, Jon Lester has done his best to be their parachute sporting a nifty 2.54 ERA since heading west. Lester is in a similar situation as Kershaw, facing a division rival on the road that’s playing much better as of late. As such, his whiffs may also be tempered. The main difference is Oakland will face Chris Young who is effective at home, but not on a par with Petit. Kershaw’s potential for innings plus whiffs makes him a better start on daily sites using one pitcher. However, on sites with two pitchers, Lester’s lower cost makes him a more attractive anchor.

Solid (can be considered for both daily cash games and tournament play)

Over his past three starts, Jordan Zimmermann is sporting an impressive strikeout rate of 11.3 per nine innings, though this is tempered somewhat since it’s occurred over just 18 1/3rd frames. Today he toes the rubber in Citi Field against a New York Mets squad that has been hard to fan since the All-Star break though they don’t score a lot of runs. With the tempered strikeout potential he’s not the best tournament play but Zimmermann does make a solid choice in cash games, especially on two-pitcher sites.

On paper, Edinson Volquez is lined up for a solid outing. While his home versus road splits are nearly the same, working at the pitcher-friendly PNC Park is never a bad thing. He’ll be facing a Chicago Cubs’ squad that fans 23 percent of the time on the road versus right-handers. In addition, Volquez primary crutch is control while the visitors don’ts draw many walks. The Cubs are without Anthony Rizzo and since Volquez is very stingy with home runs at home, scoring will be difficult.

Due to his early-season struggles, Mike Minor’s cost on most daily sites is at a price-point where could be a value play. Working in his favor is a recent stretch where he’s tossed a quality start in seven of his previous eight outings. He’s facing an offensively-challenged Texas Rangers squad, albeit in Arlington. Working against him is the Rangers don’t fan a whole bunch, tempering fantasy points potential. Still, on a day where there’s not a lot in terms of high-strikeout pitchers on the docket, Minor has a strong chance to offer solid bang-for-the-buck.

Value Plays (best used in tournaments or on multiple-pitcher sites)

Jason Vargas takes on the Boston Red Sox in Kauffman Stadium. While the Royals’ righty isn’t known for his strikeout prowess, he’s whiffed 16 over his last 18 stanzas, spanning three starts. The visitors are fanning at an elevated 24 percent rate on the road versus right-handers so Vargas has a chance to keep his strikeout roll going.

Honestly, this is perhaps the least compelling slate of games from top-to-bottom in recent memory. In the spirit of offering a longshot for tourney play, David Buchanan faces a Miami Marlins squad devoid of its best hitter so he’s got a chance to limit runs. Additionally, the Fish fan frequently so a plethora of punch outs is possible. How’s that for old-fashioned alliteration?