Fantasy daily notes for September 11 – ESPN

Starting pitcher projected Game Scores for September 11
					2014 Statistics			Past 21 Days
GS	Team	Name	T	Opp	W-L	ERA	WHIP	W-L	ERA	WHIP
77		Chris Sale	L	Oak	11-3	2.09	0.94	1-0	1.89	1.11
66		Johnny Cueto	R	StL	17-8	2.23	0.98	2-2	3.42	1.44
63		Corey Kluber	R	Min	14-9	2.47	1.10	1-3	2.88	1.36
61		Cory Rasmus	R	@Tex	3-1	2.81	1.18	1-0	3.38	1.13
61		A.J. Burnett	R	Pit	8-15	4.29	1.38	2-2	3.90	1.16
60		Alex Cobb	R	@NYY	9-7	2.83	1.16	1-1	1.11	1.03
58		Mike Fiers	R	Mia	5-2	2.03	0.82	3-1	2.60	0.83
57		Tanner Roark	R	@NYM	12-10	2.97	1.11	0-3	3.20	1.18
56		Francisco Liriano	L	@Phi	4-10	3.74	1.31	1-1	3.52	1.44
55		Jake Peavy	R	Ari	5-13	4.01	1.33	3-1	0.98	0.98
53		Randall Delgado	R	@SF	3-3	5.40	1.40	1-0	1.12	1.13
53		Lance Lynn	R	@Cin	15-8	2.80	1.31	2-0	2.16	1.40
53		Bartolo Colon	R	Wsh	13-11	3.96	1.16	2-1	4.91	1.26
50		Michael Pineda	R	TB	3-4	1.80	0.84	1-2	1.78	0.79
50		Scott Kazmir	L	@CWS	14-7	3.42	1.15	1-2	9.18	1.98
47		Nathan Eovaldi	R	@Mil	6-10	4.19	1.29	0-3	5.91	1.88
45		Ricky Nolasco	R	@Cle	5-10	5.87	1.59	0-2	5.32	1.52
44		Liam Hendriks	R	Bos	1-1	4.81	1.11	0-1	3.27	1.00
39		Nick Martinez	R	LAA	3-10	5.03	1.59	1-1	4.03	1.52
33		Allen Webster	R	@KC	3-3	6.47	1.61	0-2	8.24	1.78
GS: The pitcher’s projected “Game Score,” from Bill James’ original formula, which accounts for past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days), opponent and ballpark. A Game Score of 50 typically is typically regarded a quality start; anything over 70 is exceptional, anything under 30 poor. A “*” means that the pitcher lacks requisite career major league data to produce an accurate projected Game Score; these are the author’s projections. T: Pitcher throws left-handed or right-handed. Opp: The pitcher’s opponent for the day. W-L: Pitcher’s win-loss record. ERA: Pitcher’s earned run average. WHIP: Pitcher’s average number of walks plus hits surrendered per inning.

The elite (ranked for use in daily cash games such as 50/50s and double ups)

Chris Sale will enter his start on Thursday with the third-highest strikeout rate in baseball (10.6 K/9) and the seventh-highest K/BB ratio (5.7). So if you’re willing to pay up for the Chicago White Sox left-hander, you’re getting upside and plenty of it. While the Oakland Athletics have scored the fourth most runs in baseball this season, they’ve been kept in check by left-handed pitching, ranking 17th with a .307 weighted on-base average versus lefties this season, and 21st with a .292 wOBA over the past 30 days. The downside, however, is that the A’s don’t strike out much (just 16.9 percent against lefties — the second lowest rate in baseball), so double-digit K’s don’t appear likely.

As expected, Corey Kluber bounced back from a rough outing against the Detroit Tigers to spin nine innings of one-run ball (the lone run being unearned) against the White Sox, while whiffing eight and walking none. He’ll be tested by a Minnesota Twins team that, over the past 30 days, owns the highest wOBA in the AL (.341) and highest hard-hit average (.182) against right-handed pitching. Even so, Kluber has fanned eight or more in five of his past six outings and has surrendered more than three earned runs just once in his past 17 starts. He’s a strong bet here.

I initially planned to rank Alex Cobb in the Solid tier, but he’s been so unhittable of late that I had no choice but to promote him. Over his past nine starts, he sports a 1.08 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with a 9.9 K/9 rate. He also hasn’t allowed a single home run in that span. Facing the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium poses problems for some young hurlers, but this isn’t the same fearsome Yankees lineup we’ve seen in years past. The Yankees currently rank just 24th in baseball in runs scored, and rank 19th in baseball with a .307 home wOBA. Look for Cobb to continue his dominant run in this one.

Solid (can be considered for both daily cash games and tournament play)

Perhaps Johnny Cueto deserves to be in the tier above (he does have the second-highest Game Score of the day, after all), but he’s not as much of a sure thing as you might like. While the Cincinnati Reds‘ offense has been sputtering, the St. Louis Cardinals have been thriving, with a .326 wOBA versus righties during the past month. In fact, the last time they faced Cueto (Aug. 20), they knocked him around for five runs in five innings. The Reds’ right-hander still has the stuff to shut good offenses down, but he hasn’t whiffed double-digit hitters in a game since June 11, and the Cardinals strike out less than any other team in the NL (17.6 percent). The upside may not be there to justify a high price tag.

Following a couple of so-so outings, Jake Peavy has really found his rhythm with the San Francisco Giants. He’s now gone five straight outings without allowing more than one earned run in a start. There’s little reason to think that success won’t continue against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who look lost offensively right now. During the past month, the Snakes rank last in baseball with a .266 wOBA and a .105 ISO, the latter of which is fourth worst in the majors. There’s not a ton of strikeout upside here, but the matchup is still good enough for Peavy to rack up his fair share.

Like the Diamondbacks, the Reds have been stumbling offensively of late, as noted above. They sport the third-worst wOBA in baseball over the past month (.272) and sport the third-worst hard-hit average (.127) against right-handed pitching. Enter Lance Lynn, who hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a start since June 28, and hurled seven shutout innings against Cincinnati when he last faced them on Aug. 20. A matchup against Reds ace Cueto isn’t ideal, but Lynn offers plenty of value for the cost.

Francisco Liriano can get himself into trouble when his control is lacking, but he can also rip through lineups with relative ease when all things are clicking, which has been the case of late. The left-hander has allowed just two runs in his past three starts combined, and his Thursday start takes place on the road, where he holds a 2.67 ERA this year (with a 4.58 mark at home). Better yet, the Philadelphia Phillies strike out 23 percent of the time, which matches up quite nicely with Liriano’s 9.8 K/9. I prefer Liriano’s skill set in tournament play, but I’m not opposed to using him in cash games, too.

Value plays (best used in tournaments or on multiple-pitcher sites)

Mike Fiers has made six starts this season, so the sample size is small. In those six starts, however, he’s looked awfully good. He’s allowed more than two runs in only one of the six outings, and twice he fanned nine or more, which shows that he has the necessary strikeout potential to be a viable tournament play. Then consider that Fiers’ opponent on Thursday, the Miami Marlins, strike out more than any other team in baseball (23.7 percent). There’s a nice potential payoff here.