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5 Things to Watch:
1. Here are the three games with the highest over/unders for Monday, provided by OddsShark…
2. Stephen Strasburg and Clayton Kershaw will have all eyes on them as they battle in Los Angeles. The Dodgers are favored (-185) and the over/under is minuscule (5.5 total runs). Kershaw’s DFS price tag is hard to swallow on both FanDuel ($13,000) and DraftKings ($14,200). Both arms are highly capable of tallying double-digit strikeouts. Stras, especially on FD, will allow you to save some money for your offense.
3. For the BvP readers: Chris Iannetta is 7-for-15 (.467) with two home runs against Mike Pelfrey…Seth Smith is 7-for-17 (.412) with four extra-base hits against Mike Pelfrey…Also, Mark Trumbo is 14-for-45 (.311) with five homers against Derek Holland.
4. Manny Machado started serving his four-game suspension on Sunday. Unfortunately, he’ll miss this series in Texas. Yesterday, J.J. Hardy batted eighth as the Orioles’ shortstop.
5. Steven Wright’s Red Sox are the biggest favorites on the board (-200). On the down side, the projected run total is high (10 total runs). So, while Wright has the best ERA in the American League, I’m more likely to add Boston’s bats and not the pitcher on the hill for the Red Sox.
Must-Start of the day: Mark Trumbo, BAL
You’ve already read his BvP numbers in the “5 Things.” Trumbo also has a .361 ISO against left-handed pitchers this year.
Deal of the day: Jose Abreu, CWS
Against R.A. Dickey, another knuckleball pitcher, he is 5-for-12 (.417) with three home runs. Let’s see if that translates to Steven Wright.
Avoid of the day: Bryce Harper, WAS
He is 1-for-12 (.083) with seven strikeouts against Clayton Kershaw.
Stack of the day: Baltimore Orioles
With some expensive pitchers on the board, you need an affordable stack. Baltimore has plenty to choose from. Hardy fills in for Machado, Schoop is decent against lefties, Davis is under-priced, and Trumbo is worth every penny.
Starting pitchers:
Stephen Strasburg, WAS – (See “5 Things”)
Clayton Kershaw, LAD – The price tag is astronomical, but he’s still worth mentioning. Kershaw has struck out at least 10 batters in three of the past four games and is 6-1 with a 1.31 ERA at home this season.
Drew Smyly, TB – Let’s be honest, Cleveland didn’t sleep much on Sunday night. One of two things will happen on Monday night: 1) the Indians will still be amped from the night before and play great; 2) they’ll be hungover and struggle. In a two-SP DFS lineup, adding Smyly could be a great call.
Catchers:
Victor Martinez, DET – He has a .207 ISO against righties this year.
Willson Contreras, CHC – Joe Maddon said Contreras will start either Sunday or Monday. Well, he didn’t start last night. However, Contreras did homer in the very first pitch he saw in a pinch-hitting role. Imagine what he’ll do with a whole game’s worth of pitches.
Chris Iannetta, SEA – (See “5 Things”)
First basemen:
David Ortiz, BOS – He has an incredible .408 ISO against righties this year.
Miguel Cabrera, DET – He has a .279 ISO against right-handed pitchers this year.
Chris Davis, BAL – Still under-priced on FD ($3,800), Davis has a .235 ISO against southpaws this season.
Jose Abreu, CWS – “Deal of the day”
Second basemen:
Robinson Cano, SEA – He has a .341 ISO against righties this year.
Ian Kinsler, DET – He has a .216 ISO against right-handed pitchers in 2016.
Jonathan Schoop, BAL – He has a .189 ISO against lefties this season.
Third basemen:
Kris Bryant, CHC – He has a .329 ISO against left-handed pitchers this season.
Jung Ho Kang, PIT – Yes, Madison Bumgarner is on the hill, but Kang still has a .382 ISO against left-handed pitchers. The lowered price tag makes the play a low-risk/high-reward move.
Kyle Seager, SEA – He has a .261 ISO against righties this season.
Nick Castellanos, DET – He has a .215 ISO against righties this year.
Shortstops:
Trevor Story, COL – This is the spot to save money on Monday. Story is $2,700 on FD, Hardy is listed below ($2,500), and Tim Anderson is $2,500. All three are great money-saving options.
J.J. Hardy, BAL – He has a .174 ISO and .299 wOBA against lefties this season. His price is best on DK, compared to the three shortstops provided above.
Outfielders:
Mark Trumbo, BAL – (See “5 Things”)
Jackie Bradley Jr., BOS – he has a .309 ISO against right-handed pitchers in 2016.
Mookie Betts, BOS – He has a .225 ISO against righties this year.
Seth Smith, SEA – (See “5 Things”)
Matt Szczur, CHC – He has a .333 ISO against southpaws this season.
Leonys Martin, SEA – He has a .223 ISO against righties this year.